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Advice On Who To Take At #1?
Fantasy Baseball Questions: Ask the Staff
by KFL Staff posted 06/29/07
Note: We have been a little lax in posting customers fantasy questions. So, out of courtesy to them we are posting them now. As the saying goes better late than never.
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Advice On Who To Take At #1?
Question from: Daniel - Originally received on 03/20/07
Question - I'm in a 5x5, 10 team keeper league where each team keeps 12 players. Our starting positions are: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, P. Our maximum innings are set to 1500.
My keepers are as follows: 1B-Derek Lee, 1B-Prince Fielder, 2B-Robinson Cano, SS-Stephen Drew, OF-Andruw Jones, OF-Jermaine Dye, OF-Chone Figgins, OF-Jeff Francoeur, SP-Cole Hamels, SP-Ervin Santana, SP-Ian Snell, RP-Houston Street
As you can probably tell based on my keepers, I finished in dead last last year and thus have the #1 pick in the draft. We do not use a serpentine draft, so I'll have the top pick in each round: #1, #11, #21, etc.
I was wondering if you could give me some advice on who to take with the number one pick, as well as who to possibly target at the #11 pick, or at least what position to be looking at. The best available players not kept according to one publication I looked at (in no particular order) are:
3B- Alex Gordon
SP-Daisuke Matsuzaka
3B- Chipper Jones
3B- Scott Rolen
RP- Takashi Saito
SS-Carlos Guillen
SP- Mike Mussina
SP- Randy Johnson
RP- Francisco Cordero
RP -Bobby Jenks
C- Michael Barrett
SP- Chien-Ming Wang
SP- A.J. Burnett
(I left out players available at positions I wouldn't draft in the first two rounds, namely a lot of 1B and 2B)
What are your thoughts on my pick at #1? I'm personally torn between Dice-K and Alex Gordon, but I'm leaning towards Gordon. Some things I've read have him as being the best prospect in the history of fantasy baseball, a five category guy in the mold of David Wright. I know he may not produce a whole lot this season, but I'm not going to win the league this season anyway, I'm playing for the future. Also, with my second round pick, #11, should I just basically go with the best reliever available, hopefully Jenks if he falls to me? We can start up to four relievers at a time and there's already been 12 relievers kept.
I was also hoping you could give me your overview of my team at this point and my chances of winning in the future ( a year or two down the road) based on the keepers I've posted and our league's structure.
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Bob Lane
Answer - I do like your keepers and think you'll have a better year from them this season.
First, I would hold off on closers for as long as possible. Then I would go for either Dice-K.or Gordon like you said as the first pick from the players you listed. They have been going 1 and 2 with both being first in different leagues. The final decision being what a team needs. You do have a spot open at 3rd and I think the overall long term value has Gordon slightly higher, as pitchers are hard pressed to maintain the same level of pitching and consistency during their careers
As for projection the 11th pick for you. I would go for a SP depending on who is available. Assuming you drafted Gordon first. I wouldn't take a closer at 11th, but at a later pick, since they are only good for 1 category and don't pitch enough to effect ERA or Whip all that much. And are very iffy at keeping their jobs. So I would go for a sure thing in Wang or Burnett.
As for your team overall, I do like it. Fielder, Cano, Drew I think all will have better years in 07. Lee should be back to normal which will help you more this season. You also have some solid stable bats in Jones, Dye, Figgins and Francoeur. For pitching you have some real good young guns and need a few more decent pitchers to have a solid pitching staff. You don't have any RPs right now, but like I said those should be at the bottom of the fantasy draft list. I do see you bettering your team record here. And if Gordon goes off and you acquire more pitching, you be able to compete. And I think you will see more wins and closer games.
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